Hierarchical modeling of InStat index performance: Euro 2020 vs. Copa America 2020

We applied hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) analysis to examine the effect of tournament (Euro vs. Copa) on positional differences in average player-match performance (InStat performance index) as well as remaining variability between- and within-teams (between-player) after adjusting for tournament and position of participating players. All hierarchical linear models were created with SPSS v.23 (IBM Armonk, USA). Magnitude-based decisions were used to make inferences about the magnitude and uncertainty of the effects at the 90% level after correcting for multiple comparisons.

There were substantial between tournament differences in expected average player-match performance for WD [8.8% (2.5;15.5%)], CAM [10.9% (4.5;18.1%)] and FW [12.6% (6.0;19.5%)], but less likely differences for CD [7.9% (2.0;14.2%)], CDM [6.8% (0.9;13.2%)] and WM [5.9% (0.1;12.0%)] (Table 1). 

Table 1. Model predicted tournament average across positions. (* after adjustment for multiple comparisons).

 

Euro vs. Copa avg InStat index

Effect size

Inference*

WD

292 (283-302) vs. 269 (256-282)

0.76(0.22;1.29)

likely substantial

CD

291 (282-300) vs. 270 (257-283)]

0.68 (0.18;1.19)

possibly substantial

CDM

282 (273-291) vs. 264 (252-277)

0.59(0.08;1.11)

possibly substantial

WM

281 (273-290) vs. 265 (253-278)]

0.51(0.01;0.95)

possibly substantial

CAM

292 (282-302) vs. 263 (249-278)

0.93(0.39;1.62)

likely substantial

FW

268 (259-277) vs. 238 (226-250)

1.06(0.53;1.59)

very likely substantial

 

Team average performance varied by 8.1% (6.0;9.8%) across positions, whilst within-team  performance varied by 8.4% (7.9;8.8%) around each team’s average (Figure 1).


The Euro 2020 tournament had higher average performance for FW, CAM and WD compared to Copa America 2020 tournament. Potential reasons for these findings may include differences in quality characteristics obviously, but other factors such as differences in playing styles/formations may have come into play. Crowded midfield (combined with lack of outstanding 1vs.1 players) that leaves the remaining attacking players (CAM and FW) isolated was seen in Copa America whilst Euro tactical trends included exchange of position in the center or exchange of positions between insides and forwards; both of these trends create opportunities for FW and CAM. Hybrid formations that enabled WD to play along the entire sideline was a tactical trend  in Euro, whilst for Copa full-backs were moving on the inside channels as a strategy to isolate the wingers for 1vs.1 plays.

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